The geopolitical crises that have plagued the borders of Europe since February 2022 are costing Western European airlines an estimated €13 billion—losses driven by skyrocketing flight expenses and the sudden disappearance of revenues from once-lucrative markets. It’s a steep price to pay, especially at a time when the industry was just emerging from the brink of collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. These external shocks come on top of internal challenges: delays in aircraft deliveries, engine reliability issues, and supply chain bottlenecks.
This is the picture that Corriere della Sera can now reveal for the first time, based on a cross-analysis of confidential airline documents, specialized aviation data platforms, and industry sources. And that €13 billion figure doesn’t even include reduced revenues from belly cargo on passenger flights, the mounting costs of passenger compensation (rerouting, refunds, hotel stays, meals, airport transfers), or the financial toll of short-lived crises such as Iraqi airspace closures and rising tensions between India and Pakistan.
“We haven’t had a moment to breathe in six years,” the CEO of a major European carrier admitted to Corriere during the latest IATA general assembly held in New Delhi, India. “In 2019, we were already grappling with shrinking margins after a strong 2018. Then came the pandemic in 2020. Early in 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, forcing us to exit those markets and reroute long-haul flights to Asia. In October 2023, we had to halt operations in the Middle East due to the Israel-Hamas conflict—then partially resumed, only to suspend them again. Add to that the India-Pakistan flare-ups and rocket exchanges between Israel and Iran.”
“It feels like a never-ending survival course,” echoed another European airline chief. “Every morning I look at our business numbers with one eye, and with the other, I try to anticipate where the next geopolitical flashpoint will emerge. The only silver lining, for now, is that jet fuel prices remain under control.”
Unstable world
According to consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, conflict-affected regions expanded by 65% globally between 2021 and late 2024—now covering 4.6% of the Earth’s surface. “That’s 6.15 million square kilometers,” analysts Hugo Brennan and Mucahid Durmaz noted, citing their Conflict Intensity Index.
Globally, over 130,000 commercial flights operate daily, carrying nearly 14 million passengers. Around 30,000 of those flights depart from European airports, according to Eurocontrol. These aircraft follow tightly coordinated routes, shaped by international agreements, years of operational optimization, and strict regulatory requirements—fuel efficiency, crew working limits, and safety among them. So when a single air corridor closes, even temporarily, airlines are forced to rethink entire route networks.
Among the most impacted carriers is Finland’s Finnair, headquartered just outside Helsinki. Once prized for its geographic advantage on routes between Europe and East Asia, the airline has taken a double hit: first from the near-total collapse of Asian demand during the pandemic, and then from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to a ban on European airlines flying over Russian airspace—the fastest route to Asia.
The result? Finnair’s flights to Asia are now up to 40% longer, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. Other affected carriers include SAS (+23.5%), Poland’s LOT (+21%), and KLM (+17%). “It’s more expensive because we have to detour around Russian airspace,” Finnair CEO Turkka Kuusisto told Corriere. “It means more fuel. And we need four pilots instead of three.”
That’s not the only disadvantage. Chinese carriers, still permitted to fly over Russia, offer quicker alternatives. The Helsinki–Shanghai route takes 8 hours and 40 minutes with China’s Juneyao Airlines, but averages 11 hours and 20 minutes with Finnair, according to Flightradar24 data. “Finnair has been most affected by the Siberian route withdrawal,” said aviation expert John Strickland of JLS Consulting. “It has had to reinvent itself to some extent and redeploy some capacity to other markets which is itself not easy as there may be insufficient demand.”
Higher costs
Longer flights also mean higher operating costs: more fuel, more maintenance, more crew hours, and fewer chances to reuse aircraft on other routes. Each extra hour in the air for a widebody aircraft can cost airlines around €11,000. From March 2022 through December 2025, Corriere estimates Western European carriers will have spent an additional €2 billion flying longer routes between Europe and destinations like China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan.
“The fact that European airlines have to circumvent Russian airspace while Chinese carriers are allowed to fly over it creates a competitive imbalance,” a senior executive at one of Europe’s leading airlines said. “This is forcing European carriers to scale back their routes to China, as they struggle to make them profitable.” The executive added: “The broader issue, however, is that China is using this situation to position its airports as hubs for Japanese and Korean passengers.”
The most significant losses, however, stem from the shuttered Russian and Ukrainian markets—once the origin and destination for millions of travelers. Since the invasion began, and assuming the situation remains unresolved through 2025, airlines in Western Europe are expected to lose just under €10 billion in revenue, according to reviewed documents and data platforms.
In 2019, Lufthansa alone earned an estimated €230 million on Germany–Russia routes (including connecting traffic), while Air France booked nearly €150 million. Ukraine was also a cash cow: Wizz Air generated more than €270 million, and LOT at least €100 million from Ukrainian operations.
The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and saw roughly 250 kidnapped, triggered an Israeli military response in Gaza and expanded operations into Lebanon against Hezbollah. Israel and Lebanon have long been profitable markets for European airlines, but service disruptions stretched for weeks or months. The staggered resumption in Tel Aviv and prolonged halt in Beirut cost European carriers around €1.4 billion in lost revenue. In 2019, Alitalia earned €205 million from flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut, while British Airways took in €200 million.
“An unprecedented mix of challenges”
“Airlines have always had to manage geopolitical challenges, however currently the combination is a particularly difficult one,” said Strickland. “For those operating to the Middle East and Asia, European carriers find themselves unable to fly over Siberia, offering the fastest route to parts of Asia and frequently facing extended circuitous routings to or around the Middle East. This adds operational complexity and additional costs.”
“Airlines in general do have to deal with geopolitical issues, including direct impacts (e.g., demand, closed air space) and indirect (e.g., fuel price). In general this does seems to be a time with a lot of geopolitical issues,” added Savanthi Syth, managing director at Raymond James, who also pointed to U.S.-led trade wars. “How each European airline is impacted partly depends on the respective network. For example, the closure of Russian airspace is more of an issue for European airlines’ service to Asia or for countries like Finland. From this perspective, airlines focused on intra-Europe service are less impacted. Also IAG is less impacted than Air France-KLM or Lufthansa that have greater Asia service.”
She warned that uncertainty erodes growth potential. “Anything that impacts demand, ability to plan (e.g., having to cancel flights on short notice), and ability to grow hurts an airline’s ability invest in the business. Some airlines are better positioned to manage through this environment than others. It doesn’t help that during this time, airlines are also still dealing with supply chain issues, which seems to be getting better, but not back to normal. It is a challenging industry.”
“There is no choice but to manage these restrictions on a day to day, month to month basis, paying full attention to safety and security advice from regulators and following geopolitical developments closely,” Strickland said. “Sometimes routes have to be suspended entirely for safety reasons, causing financial loss.” He concluded: “At the least this situation causes headaches and consumes more management time which could be used in more productive ways.”
lberberi@corriere.it
13 luglio 2025
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